Discuss The Factors That Influence Our Judgement, Thinking And Decision-Making

? address some the f playactors which model our estimation, vox populi and decisiveness- devising Our every sidereal day lives be filled with umteen options and decisivenesss which provideing violation on our lives two in the short and long- destination. Our cognition of the impact of these ratiocinations on our proclaim lives and those around us provide discover how much time and effort is given to arriving at these closes.There argon some(prenominal) factors which impact on thinking, judgement and decisiveness- reservation and it is weighty to n unrivaled that a great deal these br erasehe simultaneously rather than as exclusive aras but in set in full understand the entire exploit we must analyse the factors in each individual bea. While it is n wholly practicable or realizable to consider each(prenominal) the factors in every close, knowledge of the factors, process and how they interact croupe be of critical importance.By understanding the facto rs, we butt joint as genuine how we harbor stopping points and by gaining knowledge on the entire process, we ass ultimately get in at s a good deal closes by being conscious of our conception and drill process. How we think and apply our thought process to the decisions often mould the paths we play out to take. There argon two carcasss, or modes, which determine how we think (Kahneman, 2011). The send-off form is fast, automatic, emotional and frequent and the second system is slow, logical systemal, infrequent and conscious.The backup of the Kahnemans book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, gives us an indication of the two systems. The first system, thinking fast, is associated with quick response fetching into esteem the environment in which we argon in which indeed allows us to respond immediately. This rat be in-chief(postnominal) especially in times of danger and the system relies heavily on ecumenical rules and guidelines, kn knowledge as heuristics. These he uristics atomic number 18 primarily geared towards service of process us in the moment and protecting us from immediate danger and are very functionful in this regard.However, the heuristics are designed to recreate in the environment from which we bemuse evolved and outside of this environment cigaret stretch forth to errors. The second system, slow thinking, is the ace we would normally associate with the thought process in the strictest sense. The process is a slow one which is both contend and conscious and we would feel that we are in control. The slow system whitethorn be used to determine what clothes we will wear directly or which shares we should invest in to gain a higher takings of investment. While both these systems operate in different shipway, they in like manner are interconnected and rely on each other.Any impressions that are formed finished system one will be fed into system two. In military posts where system one encounters an environment to which it is unfamiliar, it will automatically mobilise system two to give doance. The discipline and thought process in system one is crucial in protecting us from day to day it is nevertheless much less military unitive for any long term planning. Any short comings of one system is made up for by the force of the other system and combined can ensure give way outcomes whether in the immediate or longer term.While the way in which we think, exploitation either of the systems or modes of thinking described by Kahneman, is important, so too will logic play an important usage in our thought process and how we reach decisions. Deductive reasoning, alike known as deductive logic or logical deduction is the process of reasoning from one or to a greater extent general premises or statements to reach a logical terminal which is definite. Deductive reasoning makes a clean-cut marry between premises and conclusions and it recognises that if all premises are true and the scathe are clear and the principles of deductive logic are followed then the conclusion that is reached is true.For moral, if all students eat in the canteen, and Martin is a student, then Martin must eat in the canteen. Inductive reasoning, on the other hand, is reasoning whereby the premises would certify to supply strong evidence for the truth of the conclusion. While a deductive argument is supposed to give certainty, inductive will giveprobable certainty. Using the example above, more evidence would need to be sought in ball club to determine of Martin does indeed eat in the canteen and it would not be interpreted as given until raise evidence is provided.The application of either deductive or inductive reasoning will be a vital factor in our decision-making. In certain circumstances it whitethorn be suitable to apply either, depending on the importance and certainty mandatory in decision and the impact of making assumptions. However, there are as headspring some factors which can goug e the outcome of any decision and the logic whitethorn not be true where a untrue belief exists. A fallacy is a mistaken belief, especially one ground on unsound arguments (www. oxforddicionaries. com). An argument can be fallacious, irrespective whether or not the conclusion is true.There are two types of fallacy, formal and informal. A formal fallacy is an error that stems from a poor logical form whereas an informal fallacy is an error in reasoning that does not originate in haywire logical form. A formal fallacy get outs in a word form of reasoning that will always be wrong ascribable to a flaw in the logical structure of the argument which will knuckle under the argument invalid. A fallacy can be of presumption which fails to prove the conclusion by simply assuming that the conclusion in itself is proof. A fallacy of weak inference would fail to prove the conclusion without competent evidence.Fallacies of distraction are those that fail to prove the conclusion with di stant entropy such(prenominal) as emotion while a fallacy of equivocalness would fail to prove the conclusion due to the impreciseness of the words or grammar. Some fallacies whitethorn be committed intentionally in piece to either manipulate or persuade by deception or unintentionally due to a lack of understanding or carelessness. both way, such situations can result in an alternative action than that which whitethorn discombobulate being taken if complete or accurate schooling was supplied.As with all reading supplied for the basis of decisions, it should be checked to ensure great accuracy throughout the decision-making process and to reduce the likelihood of judgemental slashes. Decision overlords are susceptible to a fall of judgemental inclinees that systematically lead to predictable inconsistencies and decisional errors (Nisbett & Ross, 1980). We often use our judgement to quicken the decision-making process and we will use of judgement to assist us during this process. However, as Nisbett and Ross have identified, this process can often lead to errors.Selective intuition, impression exertions including primacy, regency and pack as well as framing and presentation cause and hindsight are all examples of judgemental biases with can distort our analysis and ultimately impact on our decision-making. Selective perception is whereby an individual perceives what they indirect request from a message, in any form of communication including a picture or an advertisement, and ignoring everything else. People tend to see things from within their own frame of character and as a result the message they call for may be distorted or inaccurate.This may come due to the amount of information we receive and our inability to accurately process all the information our brain receives. We subconsciously scan the information that we receive and as a result we often not only see what we want to see but too what we expect to see (Plous, 1993). An examp le of this bias is the Hostile Media Effect, which refers to the finding that people who have strong biases towards a certain issue perceive media coverage as being biased against their views, irrespective of the reality. The results of a study carried outin Stanford University (Valone, Ross & Lepper, 1985), which showed innovatives clips from the Sabra and Shatila massacre in Beirut to both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli students, found thatboth sides considered the clips to be slanted in favour of the other side. The forcefulness of our emotional attachment can have a significant crook on how we can perceive situations and can therefore distort our perception and influence our decisions. We have often heard that first impressions last so we are advised from childhood right through to preparing for interviews to make a good first impression.The basis for this is the primacy event which occurs when initial impressions are believed to be more relevant and important in rendering a decision than later impressions (Williams, 2002). While this instinctive reaction is often correct, it can besides be misleading and allowing us to form the wrong opinion. In such cases, because our opinion is already formed, it can be difficult to change this as we are unlikely to allow ourselves time to develop the relationship further.As well as the primacy effect occurring in instances such as the interview, it can also occur in situations when, for example a presentation that is presented first will leave a greater impressions, irrespective of the value of the content. In certain situations, it is, besides the or so recent incident which will be perceived to be most relevant and this is referred to the regency effect. This is often the case when recalling words or number or even heads such as when contestants on TV shows such as The Generation Game would recall the items that had previously passed sooner them on a conveyor belt.Research showed that in most cases, conte stants recalled the last item first in most instances (www. bbc. co. uk). The timing of when a decision will be made is a crucial factor and if a decision is to be delayed by as much as a week, then the primacy effect will take precedence whereas if the second or final argument isnt delivered until a later date then the regency effect will carry more weight. Another factor which may influence our judgement and decision making is the so-called halo effect, a cognitive bias whereby the judgement of a persons character is influenced by ones overall impression.The manner in which this can manifest itself it best illustrated with an example you are at a party and meet a friendly person. Later that week you have asked to become involved in a charity event and are seeking sponsorship. You contact the person you met at the party as you distrust they will make a donation. In reality, there is no unite between the pleasant nature of the person you met at the party and generosity. Yet, the halo effect is leading you towards the assumption that the two are connected.Many people use the halo effect to sway peoples judgement and it very often victimized by politicians. A local GP may seek option to local or national government having made numerous promises in their bid for election. The electorate may determine that because they are educated and medically serve they will make good politicians. In reality, there is no correlation between the two but the halo effect in umpteen cases convinces the electorate. The opposite of the halo effect is known as the devils horns effect and is essentially the reverse.If a negative characteristic is identified in an individual, then further negative attributes may be associated with them without sufficient evidence. In order to turn in and form a balanced and more objective opinion, it is important to be aware of the existence of the halo or devils horns effect and begin to ascertain what the echt characteristics or traits rat her than simply forming an opinion without sufficient evidence. How information is both presented and framed to the decision maker can impact on their final judgement.The manner in which the information is sure can impact on how the information is processed. For example, if we are asked how if we consider if soulfulness is tall or small, or if the question of weight is presented as how giving or small is someone, we may give different opinions. Similarly, anchoring may occur when the questions is presented with data which may influence the decision-maker. Anchoring is the act of basing a judgement on a familiar reference point that is incomplete or irrelevant to the problem that is being solved (www.businessdictionary). Again, the manner in which the information is presented may influence the decision-maker. In the event of a company deciding on a projected return-on-investment, the CFO may ask the general public treasury if a 15% return would be acceptable. The general manger m ay anchor to the figure of 15%, whereas this should not be a reference point at all and if the information was presented with a certain tone, the general managers opinion may be swayed by this too.When information becomes an anchor, we adjust insufficiently form that amount when making decisions (Williams, 2002). Our decisions are also influenced how a problem is framed. This effect can occur when decisions makers are more inclined to avoid attempt and problems are famed as gains and when they may seek run a attempt problems are viewed as losses. Framing can also influence the decision maker when the information is presented in a dictatorial rather than a negative manner. For example, there is a 90% find out of a positive return of investment rather than a 10% chance of a loss.In order to minimise presentation and framing effects and reduce the tendency to anchor, it can be beneficial to review the number of items under consideration in order to get a best picture of the situa tion in question. This can remove any bias by ensuring a greater range and reduces the focus from the presented information to increases the overall assessment and reduce and judgement bias. Hindsight, or the knew it all along effect, can also have an impact on our judgement. It refers to the inclination to recall outgoing events as being more predictable than they were prior to the event taking place.Hindsight bias may lead to memory distortion whereby those recalling the late(prenominal) events can reconstruct the event in such a manner that it leads to false or misleading theoretical outcomes. Studies carried out by Kahneman and Tversky show that the effect can cause problems when trying to analyse, interpret and understand results. One of the canonical problems with hindsight it that the person may consider that they knew it all along, and examples have been cited in historians accounts of battles and in judicial systems when responsibility is being attributed.In business, hi ndsight may influence a decision and may cause an element of overconfidence in the decision when the decision maker sees themselves who remember correctly when in fact they are forgetting they made the wrong decision the first time. The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future (Kahneman, 2012). When baptisteryd with new information, hindsight can cause the distortion in the original analysis and can lead impact on future similar decisions In making any decisions, as outlined above, how we think and the factors that influence our judgement are critical.However, the factors that influence our decision making process is not limited to those. Groupthink, the levels of bump associated with the decisions, the coherentity of the decision-maker as well as cultural and political influences all play an important role in influencing our decision making. Understanding the role of all these factors and how they ultimately influence to de cision-making process us can assist us in making better informed decisions. Groupthink can occur within a group of people when a desire for abidance within the group results in an incorrect outcome in the decision-making process.The members of the group, in an effort to avoid conflict and reach a general consensus, do not critically review or evaluate the ideas sufficiently as doing so may result in isolation. As a result of groupthink, there is a loss of creativity and there is little or no encourage for independent thinking, which can lead to a nonadaptive group. The group is likely to encounter an illusion of invulnerability, an inflated certainty that they have made the right decisions and to deterioration in mental efficiency, reality interrogation and moral judgments as a result of group pressures, (Janis, 1972).Janis has extensively researched ways to avoid groupthink including the examination of all alternatives, an independent leader and the appointment of a devils advocat e. He also advocated the vigilant appraisal , (Janis, 1982), as used by chairperson Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the President invited experts in to give their opinion and allowed those experts to be questioned. The level of uncertainty and risk is an important factor influencing the decision-maker. The entire process is an attempt to try to reduce, or, if manageable remove risks and uncertainties.The decision makers risk preference will also impact on the level of risk and uncertainty which will remain. In the face of uncertainty, key decisions may be put on hold until such time as the level of uncertainty is eliminated or, at least, reduced. It is important to bank bill that there is a distinction between risk and uncertainty. Uncertainty is the situation whereby multiple outcomes are likely but are not barely known whereas risk is a situation of uncertainty whereby the possible outcomes will involve some degree of losses dependent on the actual outcome of the situation.The decision makers perception of risk, the framing of the risk and the level of personal involvement will also be a factor in the final decision and these will assist to determine the level of control the decisions maker has over the situation. The level of control the decision maker will play an important role because while a particular action may be riskier it may be taken if greater control can be exerted on the possible outcomes.In most situations the level of risk will never be completely eliminated, however it is important that all actions are taken to reduce its impact and in this regard a good understanding of our perception of risk and risk preference is a key consideration. In making any decision, it is normally assumed the person or persons making the decision will act in a rational manner. A rational decision maker will use a method for systematically selecting among possible choices that is based on reason and facts (www.businessdictionary. com). During the process those tasked with making the decision will often use a number of analytical steps to review the facts and possible outcomes before they decide on what course of action to pursue. A rational decision is one that is not only reasoned but one that is the optimal one for solving a problem or for achieving a goal. Determining the optimum course of action will require collating and quantifying information and making several key assumptions.These assumptions must be clearly identified, otherwise, the decision maker may be seen to be acting in their own self-interest, and thus in an irrational manner. Good decision making involves sufficient search for possibilities, evidence and goals, and fairness in the search for evidence and in inference, (Baron,1991). However, the decision-maker may also be limited spring modestness by the amount of information available to them, the time constraints imposed upon them, the cognitive limitation of their minds or the amount of resources, fina ncial and non-financial at their disposal.This notion of bounded rationality was proposed by Herbert Simon whereby the decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly modify the choices available (www. princton. edu). Thus, it can be argued that the decision makers choice will be limited given the information available to them and the ability of those to act in rational manner, and they will often become satisfiers, seeking a satisfactory outcome rather than an optimal one.We constantly touch to make the best possible decisions and to make the most rational decisions can. However, as outlined above, we are subject to bounded rationality and therefore must, in reality try to determine the best possible outcome. The decisions we make are also affected by our nature, our chemical make-up, our environment and importantly, the role our emotions play. Our emotions can often overrule our reas oning and affect our logical approach to decisions, and it is important that we take time to consider options and alternatives before making unnecessary brainish decisions.The desire to make quick and compulsive decisions can result in good decisions on occasions but finding an ability to border our inclination to make compulsive decisions, which can be strongly influence by our emotions, can often result in improved decision making. Decision making is part of everyday life both in person and professionally. As outlined above there are many factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision-making.However, the factors and process is not limited to those mentioned but also involves consideration of a cost/benefit analysis, which will impact of the rationality of the decision, as well as the emotional condition and level of involvement of those making the decisions and there may even be an element of luck, however the idea that large historical events are determined by luck is deeply shocking, although it is demonstrably true (Kahneman, 2012). The time horizon and the effects of any decision should, where possible, be considered in the context of both the short and long-term to fully understand its implications.It is evident that the entire process does not involve one, or even several of the factors mentioned, but is rather a combination of both conscious and subconscious actions which, when combined, will impact on the decision. It is also clear that the correct or most favourable decision will not always be reached but recognition of the processes and the factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision making will ensure that the choices we make will be better informed and therefore result in greater probability that the decisions we make are the optimal ones.